Financial Times/Howard Marks/9-9-2022
“In the investment management business, it is standard practice to come up with macro forecasts and bet clients’ money on them. And, these days, it seems as if investors hang on forecasters’ every word. While I’ve long expressed my disregard for this, I believe it is now important to consider why making helpful macro forecasts is so difficult.”
USAGOLD note: A lot of wisdom in this short essay……And a strong argument, we will add, for long-term diversification across asset classes. Hats off to Mr. Marks for coming public with a viewpoint unlikely to elevate his popularity on Wall Street, or at the Fed, for that matter. “Why make forecasts,” he asks, “if they’re so easily rendered inaccurate?”
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